Comments on: Independent event an probability? http://bindingmachinesguide.com/586/independent-event-an-probability-2/ Tips For Beginner How To Select And Buy A Binding Machine Mon, 11 Oct 2010 04:51:44 -0500 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Merlyn http://bindingmachinesguide.com/586/independent-event-an-probability-2/comment-page-1/#comment-4588 Merlyn Thu, 29 Jul 2010 18:25:29 +0000 http://bindingmachinesguide.com/586/independent-event-an-probability-2/#comment-4588 every time the player pulls the lever of the slot machine it is an independent event. this means the out come of the previous tries has no impact on the current attempt to win. while it is unlikely to "never win" it is possible and it has no impact on what will happen in the future. every time the player pulls the lever of the slot machine it is an independent event. this means the out come of the previous tries has no impact on the current attempt to win. while it is unlikely to “never win” it is possible and it has no impact on what will happen in the future.

]]> By: Andy http://bindingmachinesguide.com/586/independent-event-an-probability-2/comment-page-1/#comment-4587 Andy Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:49:10 +0000 http://bindingmachinesguide.com/586/independent-event-an-probability-2/#comment-4587 There is one problem with the above answers. Casinos are obliged by law to return a certain percentage of their "take". In order to do so, slot machines are programmed to return a percentage of the money that has been played. However, determining WHEN the machine will pay out is very, very difficult. Even when not being played the slot machine is actively generating random numbers that change every millisecond or faster. You win when the correct sequence of numbers corresponds precisely to the time you pull. The percentage payout is calculated over the long term. Even if you leave a slot, and the next player gets the jackpot, it does not mean that you would have won it had you stayed. Being a fraction of a second off would have meant the difference between winning and losing. It's timing, not the number of coins you play. Thus indeed, each "pull" is a random event. Once, however, at the Casino in Montreal, there was a defective machine, and two guys realized that they could determine when the machine would pay out. They made millions of dollars over a period of time, until the Casino realized what was going on. The Casino sued them and I believe the case is still in court. There is one problem with the above answers. Casinos are obliged by law to return a certain percentage of their “take”. In order to do so, slot machines are programmed to return a percentage of the money that has been played. However, determining WHEN the machine will pay out is very, very difficult. Even when not being played the slot machine is actively generating random numbers that change every millisecond or faster. You win when the correct sequence of numbers corresponds precisely to the time you pull. The percentage payout is calculated over the long term. Even if you leave a slot, and the next player gets the jackpot, it does not mean that you would have won it had you stayed. Being a fraction of a second off would have meant the difference between winning and losing. It’s timing, not the number of coins you play. Thus indeed, each “pull” is a random event. Once, however, at the Casino in Montreal, there was a defective machine, and two guys realized that they could determine when the machine would pay out. They made millions of dollars over a period of time, until the Casino realized what was going on. The Casino sued them and I believe the case is still in court.

]]> By: whysostudious http://bindingmachinesguide.com/586/independent-event-an-probability-2/comment-page-1/#comment-4586 whysostudious Thu, 29 Jul 2010 16:58:26 +0000 http://bindingmachinesguide.com/586/independent-event-an-probability-2/#comment-4586 Basically the slot machine is memoryless. To illustrate what this means, consider flipping a coin: Say you just flipped 5 tails in a row. What are the odds of flipping heads on the next flip? Still 50/50. The coin does not somehow "remember" that you flipped 5 tails in a row. It's not that smart. Every flip has the same probability of coming up heads, regardless of what happened in the past. The slot machine will continue to lay you the same odds each spin because each spin is an independent event which doesn't depend on / remember what happened in previous spins. Basically the slot machine is memoryless.

To illustrate what this means, consider flipping a coin: Say you just flipped 5 tails in a row. What are the odds of flipping heads on the next flip? Still 50/50. The coin does not somehow “remember” that you flipped 5 tails in a row. It’s not that smart. Every flip has the same probability of coming up heads, regardless of what happened in the past.

The slot machine will continue to lay you the same odds each spin because each spin is an independent event which doesn’t depend on / remember what happened in previous spins.

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